Six Sigma Sports
Your view into the futuresm
NFL Picks
Your suggestions and comments are always welcome.  Contact Six Sigma Sports at the e-mail below or click here to discuss in our open forum/blog.

 February 2010:  The NFL season is over and my New Orleans pick for the Super Bowl was the winner!  I hope everyone had fun and I know you got what you paid for (it was free!).  Later I will post a recap of the 2009 NFL season but now that the weather is warming up, check my NASCAR Picks page for summer fun!  NFL Picks will be back August 2010.  Early insight - top four NFL Teams for 2010 season:  Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans.

The most accurate sports information available (1/29/09):
This page of NFL picks is for fun (or profit if you are inclined).  It is a result of our search for why football teams win or lose (our consulting side).  If you decide to invest remember, betting lines change and different outlets offer different odds.  That's why we provide each game's winner by points - so you can adjust your investments as the lines change.  We predict every game winner, every week.  We also publish early - usually Tuesday of each week.  This means we do not have the weekly injury report and other late breaking information included.  Always check before investing.  We also do not include "home field advantage" - you can add if you are inclined but at Six Sigma Sports we see this as a constantly changing value relative to each individual team, not the NFL in general.  For the Super Bowl, the "home field" does not exist.

Below you will see this week's game, the game's starting time, the favorite, the Vegas line, the underdog, our predicted winner and our predicted winning spread.  Instructions for BETTING LINE GAMBLERS  and POOL PLAYERS are no longer required.  However, remember the Vegas line has "improved" statistically as game time approaches throughout this season.

Six Sigma Sports early bracket predictions for the Playoff Season are also included on this page (from 1/7/2010) and will remain throughout the post season to track our original predictions.

At Six Sigma Sports, when our numbers are close to the Vegas Line, we stay away!  For BETTING LINE GAMBLERS, we like a spread of at least seven (7) points between our numbers and the published lines (but with only one game, we do not have many options). 

Trends noted at Six Sigma Sports:
The overwhelming trend this season has been the selection of underdogs.  When Six Sigma Sports selects the underdog versus the line, we perform.  Last week our underdog won versus the line (Minnesota).  Six Sigma Sports calculated the Indianapolis/New York Jets game as a dead heat but offered our first "talking head" insight that we see the Indianapolis offense as sand-baggers and felt their offense has played to the level of their opponents, not the level of the "Colts".  Six Sigma Sports stated a Colts offense wide open should beat the Jets by at least 14 points (the Colts won by 13 points).  This positive performance is reflected in this week's calculations.

Six Sigma Sports has 5 betting units riding on early Super Bowl lines with the NFC +3 from prior weeks action.

Six Sigma Sports' recommendation for BETTING LINE GAMBLERS splitting ten betting units:
 
6 units on New Orleans against the line, 4 units on New Orleans money line.  If you prefer a different bet under a "money management" concept of not "putting all your eggs in one basket", Six Sigma Sports would recommend taking the OVER (currently at 56.5).

Below the lines and predictions is a sampling of our reasoning for distributing your ten betting units.
         

NFL Line 2010 Super Bowl XLIV
Miami, Florida, 2/7/10
Six Sigma Sports.com
Date & Time  Favorite  Line  Underdog  Winner by 'X' points
2/7 6:25 ET  Indianapolis  -5.5 New Orleans  NO 0.1


Six Sigma Sports commentary on our Ten Betting Unit distribution:

6 units on New Orleans +5.5 (vs. Indianapolis):  New Orleans is #1 in passing TDs throughout the regular season and during the playoffs.  The only way for Indianapolis to win is to out-gun the top offense in the NFL (professional football this season has been all about scoring - mostly by passing - a huge reason the classic run the ball and play defense teams are sitting at home).  The line must be stuck in past years and must be considering Indianapolis' defense as the turning point (Indianapolis's defense is stronger than New Orleans' defense).  But this has been an offensive season - and this post season has also been all about high scoring (see the OVER bet below).

4 units on New Orleans money line +175 (vs. Indianapolis):  If your research has you on New Orleans, this is a chance to nearly double your money.

OR 4 units on the OVER 56.5 (vs. under): If your research has you puckered - go with the OVER.  No matter which team wins, the champion will have to be in the end zone many times (another reason we see New Orleans as the winner - Indianapolis kicks too many field goals - the Super Bowl winner needs TDs).

 
Six Sigma Sports Playoff Brackets 1/7/2010
This original bracket will remain posted for tracking


































Playoff Picture



















Wild-Card Round








Sat.-Sun., Jan. 9-10
Divisional Round





AFC

Sat.-Sun. Jan. 16-17





Sat., Jan. 9, 4:30 p.m. ET NBC Sat., Jan. 16, CBS





N.Y. Jets NYJ wins by 5 Indianapolis Ind wins by 3.5 Championship Round


Cincinnati      

Baltimore

Sun., Jan. 24



Sun., Jan. 10, 1:00 p.m. ET CBS Sun., Jan. 17, CBS
Sun., Jan. 24, CBS
Super Bowl XLIV
Baltimore Bal wins by 1.5 San Diego SD wins by 17 Indianapolis SD wins by 8.5 Sun., Feb. 7
New England        
New York Jets

San Diego

Sun., Feb. 7, CBS
NFC




      

San Diego
 Min wins by 5
Sat., Jan. 9, 8:00 p.m. ET NBC Sat., Jan. 16, FOX
Sun., Jan. 24, FOX
Minnesota
Philadelphia Dal wins by 3 New Orleans NO wins by 5.5 New Orleans Min wins by 1.5

Dallas      

Green Bay

Minnesota



Sun., Jan 10, 4:40 p.m. ET FOX Sun., Jan. 17, FOX





Green Bay GB wins by 16 Minnesota Min wins by 18




Arizona      

Dallas










(Our advanced statistics greatly reduce the "gambling" part of gambling).

You noticed we do not scream the latest buzz words or "the last 4 games against the spread".  We use only NFL statistics, no hype, no "talking heads*".

* Talking head definition:  The mass of "experts", from TV commentators to most handicappers that know little about how football games are won but can tell an interesting story.

An aside: Just as we do not understand the combination of ignorance and arrogance that has NFL in-season games played overseas, we do not understand the ignorance and arrogance of NFL Network pay-per-view football.

Your suggestions and comments are always welcome.  Contact Six Sigma Sports at the e-mail below or click here to discuss in our open forum.


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